winning the war in afghanistan

Soon after the British deployment to Helmand, in summer 2006, there was a major escalation in the conflict. The following year witnessed a further deterioration in the security situation, and by 2008 nearly half the country was effectively a no-go area for the international aid community.

One academic paper by two members of the UN mission in Afghanistan, UNAMA, notes that ISAF’s military operations since 2001 have “pushed” anti-government elements “towards active insurgency”. During the four years of 2001-05, evidence suggests that the Afghan population largely supported the government. In 2006-07 public opinion began to shift in favour of anti-government elements in unstable areas, and by late 2008 the population was voluntarily providing support to anti-government forces...

A confidential August 2009 report by US General Stanley McChrystal, at that time the overall military commander in Afghanistan, stated that “the overall situation is deteriorating” and that NATO faced a “resilient and growing insurgency”.

The Taliban now has ‘shadow governors’ in 33 out of 34 Afghan provinces, and a permanent presence in 80% of the country. The NGO Safety Office, which advises organisations working in Afghanistan, describes the Taliban as “a movement anticipating authority and one which has already obtained a complex momentum that NATO will be incapable of reversing”